Sunday, January 22, 2012

Fun with (delegate) numbers

Listening to the MSM (of course inclusive of FOX News) why you'd think that Newt Gingrich and/or Santorum were not only alternatives to Romney but that they are actually viable candidates for the GOP nomination. What is even more laughable is that they and their faithful viewers continue to promote the idea all the while stating that Ron Paul doesn't stand a chance for the nomination.


The fact of the matter is this is a two man race between Romney and Paul. Santorum and Gingrich are not on the ballot for 560+ delegates worth of states. They are not, and will not be on the ballot in other states besides just Virginia. They have no grassroots support and virtually "zero" ground game. They cannot win the nomination. Period.


All this MSM Propaganda pushing either Santorum or Gingrich is a joke and they're once again playing their viewers for fools. Anyway you work the numbers Gingrich and Santorum are out.


14 comments:

dmarks said...

"why you'd think that Newt Gingrich and/or Santorum were not only alternatives to Romney but that they are actually viable"

They are. All the other serious candidates have dropped out.

cwhiatt said...

Neither is viable without the 560 or so delegates they will need to secure the nomination. Try again.

cwhiatt said...

If they aren't even organized enough to have the necessary paperwork filed to be on the ballot, I would question their ability otherwise.

Jim McKee said...

What is your source for this? The only state I've heard of that falls in this category is Virginia, and I follow this stuff pretty closely.

cwhiatt said...

VA, MO, and D.C. which comprises 101 lost for Gingrich, and 68 lost for Santorum.

http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/01/11/mitt-romney-spokespe...

At present it appears that Santorum and Gingrich only have partial slates of delegates in IL, OH, and TN, which together represent 193 delegates.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com

What I am specifically referring to however is VA and the caucus states. If you understand how a caucus operates, it requires a significant organizational structure to push up delegates up through the conventions leading to the RNC. Neither Gingrich or Santorum have the organizational structure necessary to pull this off. They will need those delegate numbers to secure the nomination. I live in a caucus state (MN). I know how they work.

This is a two man race between Romney and Paul.

cwhiatt said...

As I posted at Beth's blog:

National delegates do not come out of the caucuses. The national delegates from the caucus states won't be decided until summer.

Of course FOX, CNN, MSNBC, et al. aren't likely to tell you that as they post their delegate numbers (which are nothing more than estimates) on their websites and on their broadcasts.

That Gingrich and Santorum have already compromised themselves with respect to acquiring delegates by failing to file in primary states speaks to their lack of organizational structure (a structure they absolutely must have to do well in caucus states).

Further, just because a candidate wins the presidential preference straw poll in a caucus state doesn't mean they win delegates.

What happens, and did happen ALOT in MN in 2008 is that people come to the caucus and vote in the preference straw poll and then leave. That has absolutely NO bearing on delegates. Nomination of and subsequent voting of delegates for the forthcoming conventions within states occurs later in the caucus agenda.

This is how grassroots activism works and it is a beautiful and wonderful thing.

*Note to Jarhead:

Quit waisting your time trolling here. Once you can put together a respectful comment without resorting to juvenile ad hominem I'll post it. Until then move along.

Jim McKee said...

If that were true, I'd be slashing my wrists right now. But... I guess that's why we hold elections, right?

cwhiatt said...

I know of that which I speak.

Jim McKee said...

All I can say is: It's a LONG WAY from being over. There are 2,286 delegates total, and most of them are still up for grabs.

The fat lady ain't even warming up yet.

cwhiatt said...

I agree. However, they're up for grabs for candidates that have all the necessary resources available to get them.

Gingrich and Santorum come up well short with respect to having any organizational structure just as Cain and Huntsman did.

Two man race.

Jim McKee said...

I disagree. Let's just let it play out and see what happens (especially since neither of those "two" are my choice).

cwhiatt said...

You are free to disagree all you want. Neither Newt or Gingrich will have a chance in the caucus states.

Way I see it, there's only one choice that doesn't result in ever more war, further devaluation of the dollar, more bailouts for Wall Street, further decline of civil liberties, etc.

Knuckledraggin said...

at least Shaw agrees with you Soapbox kid. that sure says a lot don't it? LMFAO

cwhiatt said...

Perhaps you can explain what Shaw has to do with this post.

Regardless, anytime one can, through the power of persuasion, bring their political, philosophical or ideological adversaries around to their way of thinking is a positive.